The US Shale Revolt: American Oil Production Will Grow Again In 2017

The period from 2009-2014 was affectionately dubbed the US Shale Revolution. During the “revolution,” 40 years of American production declines were reversed in 5 with horizontal drilling and fracing. The revolution was a capital-intensive growth phase enabled by high oil prices.

Today, we submit a new term to describe the next phase of the unconventional drilling cycle: the US Shale Revolt. A revolt has a distinctly different feel than a revolution – it’s more austere. It’s an uprising by a group of downtrodden players, in this case US Independents beaten down by OPEC oil price oppression. In 2016, an open rebellion by the shale industry against commodity price limitations began. In 2017, we expect the revolt to show its full colors.


In this post, we roll out our US oil production forecast for 2017; a year we believe will usher in some important US Shale Revolt successes. We provide regional US oil production forecasts, discuss the basis for our view, and risks to our thesis.

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