When We Make It To The Other Side… The Top 10 Debates For When The NAM Oilfield Bottoms

One beaten-down reader told us last week that we need to start a virtual happy hour after every newsletter we send these days.

We understand – the subject matter is indeed depressing.

Recent newsletters haven’t been easy for us to ship, for we know that our writings reflect the pain felt many a good friend in this industry we serve and love. Careers and livelihoods (ours included) hang in the balance.

Supplemented by input from well-placed members, Infill Thinking’s research has been ahead of the shifts at every turn in this crash – first to cover many contraction developments that have since become consensus talking points at other research shops. Some of these angles first revealed by our research include:

  • immediate recognition of the devastating implications of the two-headed black swan
  • documenting in detail the speed of the pending E&P operator response, with the voice of the industry, just two days after the oil price collapse (before all but two operators press released capex cuts)
  • tracking the capex cuts in real-time, while pointing out that frac crew releases in the field imply a second wave of spending reductions beyond the initial press releases
  • capturing the extreme magnitude of the activity collapse, just a week after oil prices tanked
  • predicting further downside risk to commodity prices into the teens and lower
  • predicting a 75% collapse in the active frac crew count to under 100
  • describing general oilfield chaos like the run on bridge plugs as demand for other oilfield goods and services evaporated, indicating mid-job halts and production shut-ins.

Today, here’s something different… an exercise in empowerment.

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