Latest Thoughts

Permian Preview: 2017 Capex And Production

The biggest regional contributor to the US Shale Revolt will be the Permian Basin. The Permian is the only unconventional oil play where production has not fallen in the downturn. In fact, Permian production today is up 13% since that fateful OPEC meeting two years ago. Following it’s conventional production …

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Weatherford Captures The “Bernard” Effect By Raising A Billion Bucks In 24 Hours

On Wednesday morning (11/16), Weatherford sold 84.5mm shares at $5.40/share in a registered direct equity offering for $456mm. Last week, Infill Thinking predicted that Weatherford would raise equity capital following the stock’s 33%+ gain on CEO Bernard Duroc-Danner’s departure. The market reacted positively to today’s equity raise, Weatherford’s stock rising another 3% …

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Offshore Drilling Theory Testing With Atwood And Rowan

Two months ago, we penned a deep dive on the offshore drilling outlook, concluding that things still must get worse before they get better. Atwood’s conference call yesterday provided a good theory test, and we came away with confirmation of our multi-year hard landing view. Here are the most important fundamental …

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Lest We Forget

In the decade we’ve been covering the oil business, we can’t recall another period of time when technology and efficiency gains were occurring this fast. And as students of this industry, we’d argue that there’s been no time in history when O&G industry methods were advancing at today’s pace. Globally, human …

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The APEX Predator & Weekly Rig Count Trends

There were a lot of smart things about the Nabors analyst day last week. One of those was the timing. Nabors was smart to host its event after most of the other contract drillers hosted their earnings conference calls in the weeks leading up to the event – the timing …

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Nabors Analyst Day First Impression: Silicon Valley Vibes

On Thursday, we attended an all-day event hosted by Nabors Industries in Houston for analysts and investors that follow the company. Nabors went all out on this one, rolling out a 160-slide deck at a full day event that included nine presentations from senior Nabors executives, a rich multi-media campaign, and a half …

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Weatherford CEO Walks Away. Here’s What We Know (And What We Think We Know)

Developing November 9, 2016 4pm central. What Happened: On Wednesday afternoon, Weatherford announced the departure of Chairman and CEO Bernard Duroc-Danner, 63, effective immediately. We explore why and what’s next. To read this update you must be a subscriber. (Current members login here.) Subscribers get Exclusive e-mail newsletters High-caliber, data-driven news, analysis and commentary New angles you’ll only find here …

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Our Favorite Election Day Chart: Hillary vs. Rig Count

We examine an interesting correlation between Hilary’s lead and the rig count bottom. To read this update you must be a subscriber. (Current members login here.) Subscribers get Exclusive e-mail newsletters High-caliber, data-driven news, analysis and commentary New angles you’ll only find here No advertisements, no noise, no clutter Downloadable data for analysts Members-only forum moderated …

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Campaign Speech… Of The Drilling Variety

  Our regular weekly analysis of Baker Hughes rig count statistics is below, but first some campaign speech. This weekend, we are taking a break from the political rhetoric to look at drilling campaigns. For the first time in two years, the US Independents are flexing up their drilling programs. …

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GE & Baker Hughes – Initial Reaction To The Deal

After four days of speculation and head scratching over what kind of deal GE and Baker Hughes might be concocting, the companies announced an extensive partnership Monday morning, essentially a merger of GE O&G with Baker Hughes. The deal is more extensive than we (and many others) originally expected late last week. …

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8 Interesting Things We Learned In The Past 24 Hours

It’s been a busy 24 hours. Since Wednesday morning, a dozen upstream management teams have provided business outlooks via quarterly conference calls. While drinking from this information firehose, we’ve been logging the highlights. In this post, we dissect the eight most interesting things we took away for the oilfield business at …

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GE Looks At Partnering With Baker On Frac? Makes Sense To Us…

We discuss the breaking news that GE has come forward as a potential partner for Baker Hughes and evaluate the merits and fit of such a partnership. To read this update you must be a subscriber. (Current members login here.) Subscribers get Exclusive mail newsletters High-caliber, data-driven news, analysis and commentary New angles you’ll only find here …

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Weatherford Does Not Share Baker’s Frac Philosophy

As Baker prepares to exit the horsepower game, Weatherford is in no hurry to send frac packing. After reactivating 3 spreads between September to December, the company will end the year at 90% marketed utilization. Weatherford is not selling its million horsepower fleet, at least not any time soon. To read this update you must be …

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A Pair Of Ironic US Oilfield Services Bankruptcies

Inside of 24 hours, two highly leveraged US onshore oilfield services companies – Basic Energy Services and Key Energy Services – each delivered Chapter 11 bankruptcy news to the market. Neither development comes as a surprise as both companies have been working on restructuring arrangements for the better part of 2016. But the timing …

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98 Offshore Rigs Have Now Been Scrapped As Transocean Recycles 3 More

Transocean’s fleet status report released late Monday afternoon showed that three more midwater semis have been selected for scrapping. At Infill Thinking, we now track 98 offshore rigs that have been retired since the downturn began in 2014. These 98 include the Transocean Driller, Transocean Winner and Sedco 704, which Transocean now plans to scrap this quarter. …

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Here We Grow Again

As we initiate our weekly rig count update here at Infill Thinking, it is nice to be writing about growth again for the first time in two years. Since the May 27, 2016 bottom, the US land rig count is up 154 rigs or +41%. Recent growth has been largely driven …

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Schlumberger Pushes Pricing, Talks Superlaterals And Cyclical Bottom

On Schlumberger’s conference call Friday morning, CEO Paal Kibsgaard made one central theme very clear. He is preparing his organization for growth again. Conversations with almost every Schlumberger customer on pricing increases have begun. Outside of Asia Pacific, Kibsgaard sees tender shoots of recovery sprouting in every market across the globe. To read …

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Did You Catch Halliburton’s Big Tone Shift? It Signals A “Roll Up Your Sleeves” Sort Of Recovery Ahead

An important tone shift in how Halliburton addressed investors Wednesday morning foreshadows a different type of recovery ahead. Reading between the lines, we’ve dubbed the upcycle of the future a “roll up your sleeves” recovery. What will oilfield companies have to do to achieve prior KPIs in the recovery ahead? We discuss that and more… To …

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Halliburton’s 3Q16 Print Is Worthy Of Celebration

Breaking October 19, 2016 6:30am central. Halliburton released its 3Q16 earnings report, marking the start of earnings season in the oilfield. Relative to the second quarter, Halliburton’s sales in North America grew. This is the first revenue increase in seven quarters. This growth offset a continued decline in international business to keep total …

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At The Cusp Of 3Q16 EPS Season, The Worm Has Finally Turned

Oilfield earnings season begins this week with Halliburton’s conference call. The tone on this upcoming round of calls is likely to be more positive than any time in recent memory. In this Thinking Ahead we outline key calls to monitor and discuss seven key themes we expect to be prevalent during the imminent earnings season. …

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A Welcome Message From Infill Thinking’s Founding Author

Welcome to InfillThinking.com. I’m Joseph Triepke, Founder and Principal Research Analyst, and I want to thank you for spending some of your valuable time here. Infill Thinking was created to cover the O&G business with independent analytical updates of the highest caliber. Our goal here, in its simplest form, is to deliver the kind …

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The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly For Latin America Deepwater

Latin American deepwater exploration and development is largely driven by the two large NOCs in the region. Here lately, these NOCs have been slamming the brakes, particularly in Brazil where Petrobras is trying to recover from scandal that rivals Enron. Both NOCs are pruning their rig portfolios, resulting in negative demand for Latin American floaters. …

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Exclusivity Is Now On The Table As Offshore Operators And Drillers Try To Make It work

In news from Rowan Thursday afternoon, we observe drilling contract negotiations taking a different kind of turn. The usual dayrate, duration, and specification sticking points that operators and contractors haggle over are expanding as deal-makers seek creative solutions to downturn problems. Exclusivity is being granted by an operator in exchange for more favorable early-termination release. …

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Halliburton Throws Jabs At Schlumberger

Halliburton and its peers may share a common outlook, but they sure do differ on oilfield service strategy. Jeff Miller got a little chippy Tuesday, throwing some jabs at Schlumberger and other oilfield service firms as he described Halliburton’s advantages. We discuss Halliburton’s punches thrown, and review other important takeaways from Jeff’s talk. …

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The Savior Everyone Is Waiting For

The Barclays investor conference held in New York the week of Labor Day marks the start of the year-end news rush. A hot item at Barclays was a basic truth about the oil market: failing to offset natural declines will push oil prices higher every time. Today’s capex starvation is setting up tomorrow’s feast. To …

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