Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

It’s Tuesday May 12, 2020 and from our desk to yours, here is a roundup of noteworthy downturn datapoints that advance the oilfield business narrative as the bottom approaches. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research …

Yesterday we summarized the plaintiff’s arguments, which have market implications in the last mile. Today we cover the defendant’s response…. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

A last mile logistics firm has asked the court system to declare a leading frac sand producer insolvent, which would nullify a big service contract. In the legal process, some interesting market data is coming to light… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

The Permian Basin rig count is down 50% from March, with little variance in the percentage decline between the Midland and Delaware Basins. But the downtrend does vary county by county… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive …

You know it’s pretty bad when $25/bbl oil gets us excited again. But here we are, and a rally from -$37 to +$25 in the prompt month ain’t nothing! There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research …

It seems like everyone from Midland to New York that cares about the oilfield market is running their own frac spread count tracker out of their quarantine quarters these days! So how about some factual inputs and validation for your own version of the latest frac action (or lack thereof)? …

The chart below visualizes US E&P operator budgets in a very important way… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership …

Everywhere you look… every report you read… everyone you talk to… it’s is all telling you the same thing these days. Things are mind-numbingly bad in the US oilfield. Far worse than even the most jaded cynics expected when this crisis began. Empty highways in the Permian. Yards full of …

Three land drillers have given rig count guidance for how far their rig counts are expected to fall by the end of 2Q20 so far. While we await the other four or five land drillers we track to report, the sum of rig count guidance so far tells us some …

The picture you’ll find in this update might just become the iconic shot that defines this downturn – similar to those stacked rigs in that H&P yard off Business 20 in North Odessa in the last downturn… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

A telling photo from the field as well as 7 quick takeaways from US Silica’s conversation this morning… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to …

In the company’s press release Thursday evening, Solaris said that activity could decline by 75% to 85% sequentially in the second quarter. This is in line with Infill Thinking predictions for US frac activity declines made here about three weeks ago. This deep activity cut prediction is also supported by …

We have reviewed a draft of the proration order and share it and something that jumps out at us here… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

As 1Q20 E&P earnings season gets under way, there are just a handful of US E&P operators that haven’t publicly disclosed how much they’ll cut their 2020 spending programs in the wake of the crisis. There are some common traits shared by some of these companies including… a) gas exposure …

This chart is gut wrenching, and we haven’t even gotten into May and June yet, which could be even worse. Our hearts ache with the impacted oilfield workers (and their families) that make all the stuff we love to write about happen. There’s a lot more to this story… Login …

How bad is the frac drought getting out in the Permian Basin? We discuss… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your …

We are currently in the throes of the sharpest rig count contraction in history, and we expect the next several weeks to register continued large drops as the US land rig count is likely to fall sub-200. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

“Give me some good news for a change,” you say? Our pleasure! Here is a chart you cannot miss because it’s all anyone’s going to be talking about as tight oil gets shut in. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this …

The US government has approved two rounds of “Paycheck Protection Program” (PPP) funding totaling nearly $700bn. The program offers partially forgivable loans of up to $10mm for companies with 500 or less employees. The funds are trickling into the oilfield, and rightly so. Here’s a look at the energy companies …

Following the Halliburton call on Monday, we’ve heard from three more management teams this week that have no visibility on the oilfield service market outlook in 2020. That said, two of these three did say some pretty interesting things about the current market climate in the Lower 48 oilpatch. Here …

We checked in with a whole bunch of our oilfield service and E&P contacts this week. What we heard from them sure sounds like complete capitulation in the oilfield market. The bottom is coming into focus. Here’s what folks we talk to are saying… There’s a lot more to this …

By The Stats – Membership Resources Provided During 1Q20 In the 90 days ended March 31, 2020, the Infill Thinking research team: published 86 independent research updates, emailed 25 original Infill Thoughts newsletters to active members, issued 14 data releases to Think Sheets® members, got in one last great member meetup …

You’ve gotta see this chart to believe it. Consider our minds blown. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership has …

On an historic Monday when the WTI front month contract fell more than 300% into negative territory, natural gas spot prices were up 10%! Here’s a look at bifurcating fortunes by basin focus… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update …

This morning at 8am central, Halliburton will host their 1Q20 earnings call. Needless to say, their remarks on challenging Lower 48 business conditions will be closely watched. While outlook / guidance could be light since visibility is limited, we expect some good color on current market conditions to come from …

We know you know the logic, but on days like today, it’s good to read and re-read the crude oil cyclical rationale in it’s simplest form, which is as follows: There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our …

Towards the end of Q&A during today’s call, came perhaps the most interesting thing that management said about the US market all morning. Specifically, Schlumberger was asked where the US frac fleet count might bottom. Management used the opportunity presented by this question to refute some of the doomsday frac …

The Texas Railroad Commission (and a whole bunch of oilfield folks) had a very busy Tuesday. The three Commissioners hosted a nearly 9-hour long virtual open hearing on Tuesday, taking petitions for and against prorating Texas oil production. 20,000 viewers tuned in to watch the webcast. A whopping 53 industry …

Torn by two extreme market forces (oil demand destruction from the lockdown and geopolitical supplier actions), US oil prices are being distorted and dislocated beyond recognition. Here’s how the actual spot bids in the field are trending across various grades and basins (spoiler alert, it isn’t pretty and the lowest …

Here are the E&Ps that have publicly announced cuts in the wake of the Sunday, March 8, oil market collapse…. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

This morning comes official news of the first in-basin Permian sand mine closure since Black Monday. This may be the first official Permian closure in the pandemic era, but it a) won’t be the last and b) might not be the actual first. Here’s what we are watching as the frac sand demand destruction situation …

We checked in with some of our friends at Winston & Strawn last week to get a read on commercial conditions in oilfield water. Since this team is plugged-in to water deal flow, we asked what issues their water midstream clients are seeking help with these days. What they shared …

As this vicious downturn sends the US oilfield industry into a workforce reduction spiral, it goes without saying that hiring freezes have become the norm. Just how bad is it and are there any bright spots? We quantify the oilfield job market here… There’s a lot more to this story… …

E&P operators announced their spending cuts a week or two before most of the oilfield service industry (OFS). We are tracking the E&P capex pullbacks in real-time here, and their planned rig releases and frac crew releases too. Now it’s OFS’s turn to activate the downturn playbook and announce cost …

Earlier this week we outlined 10 key debates that will commence as soon as the oilfield market bottoms. How will we know when the bottom is here? On what kind of stage will these debates play out? What are reasonable expectations for oilfield activity when the floor is reached? In …

The US rig count is down 170 units in three weeks. On a percentage basis, (-22%) that is the… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new …

In addition to the personnel exposure benefit, the elimination of the drying process has a very real impact on energy consumption and the resulting emissions. Converting an annual operation that pumps 360,000 tons of sand dried by natural gas to a wet sand operation would reduce CO2 emissions by at …

Putting numbers to it, the total US rig count (land and offshore) fell by 108 rigs over the last two weeks, or a 14% decrease. Here’s how this crash stacks up against 70 years of US rig count history… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

One beaten-down reader told us last week that we need to start a virtual happy hour after every newsletter we send these days. We understand – the subject matter is indeed depressing. Recent newsletters haven’t been easy for us to ship, for we know that our writings reflect the pain …

For most of the oilfield business people we know and interact with, the price of oil is noise until it isn’t. It’s one of those things that doesn’t matter until it does. And right now, it certainly does. And here’s what caught our eye in this historic week… There’s a …

We recently caught up by phone (observing social distancing) with the management team of a new entrant in the emerging mobile-mini frac sand plant market. Here’s what we learned about their plans and what they are doing differently… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full …

One week ago, a 5.0 magnitude earthquake rocked the state-line area of Texas / New Mexico. The strongest in the area since 2017, it was reportedly felt by thousands as far away as Odessa. Quakes often lead to hasty and uninformed conclusions about causes involving oilfield activity. Today’s guest post …

This piece charts the capex cuts daily so far in what can only be described as a historic, no dystopian, E&P crisis response. We also discuss what happens next with capex spending and frac crew releases and the bigger picture… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see …

A desperate bid by two Permian operators to put a floor under the price of oil and stabilize and save the US E&P industry… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

We track Xmmtpa of frac sand production capacity online in the MidCon today. We now believe that frac sand demand could sink south of Xmmtpa on an annual run rate as mid-year approaches. Here’s how local plants are reacting… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

  There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership has expired, please email us to discuss our current subscription options at [email protected]. (Current …

An important E&P capex update this week reads distinctly negative for anyone hoping for an oilfield spending increase in 2020. Here’s the relevant excerpt: There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

While you fight for the survival of your business, the assessor is doing his/her job and preparing notices of property assessments. Those assessment notices will reflect the idyllic conditions back on January 1, 2020. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this …

Frac disruption and inefficiency is on the rise as workers show symptoms or test positive for COVID-19… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill …

Unfortunately, thousands of extremely talented and dedicated oilfield business people are being let go right now through no fault of their own. So this week, Infill Thinking will begin offering 90-days free access to any oilfield business people let go from their position in these uncertain times. By offering furloughed …