Latest Thoughts

Here Come The Guidance Raises In Oilfield Services

In an interim update posted this morning, oilfield chemical supplier Flotek positively revised its outlook to account for a more constructive US drilling and completions market as 2016 winds down. Last week we wrote about how the consensus 4Q slump is a no show this year. Flotek’s announcement provides confirmation and …

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The O&G Job Creation Engine Is Firing Again

In the US, the O&G industry has begun to hire staff again for the first time in two years. We snapped this encouraging photo in front of a Halliburton completions yard while touring the Permian Basin in early-December. Source: InfillThinking.com Given what we know about the ongoing recovery and a …

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Joy To The Oil & Gas World

This holiday season is the most jolly in years for the oil and gas business. It finally feels like the tide is turning on many fronts. One Year Ago, We Predicted Everything Would Bottom In 2016 Exactly one year ago, we wrote the following outlook for another shop: As realists, we have …

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In Offshore Drilling, Financial Restructuring Quietly Chugs Along As Noble And Shell Arrive At New Terms

Even when offshore drillers aren’t tapping the capital markets for debt or equity, financial restructuring is quietly continuing behind the scenes. Contractual terms continue to be renegotiated with customers, and price concessions are still being given. Literally hundreds of multi-year contracts that were in effect this time two years ago have …

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What Fourth Quarter Slump?

Back in October, the North American land market was bracing for a seasonal slowdown into year-end. Here’s the warning Halliburton CEO Dave Lesar issued on a conference call about 6 weeks ago: “Based on current customer feedback we remain cautious around customer activity due to holiday and seasonal weather-related downtime. Our customers …

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Atwood’s Drillship Mortgages Are An Industry First

Offshore drilling contractors have been signing deals with shipyards to delay taking rig delivery for several years now. With no visibility on work, it’s better to leave rigs on the docks where they took shape than to store them somewhere harsher. This morning Atwood announced a delay deal on a pair of …

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There’s A New Anti-Frac Movement Brewing. It’s Leaders Are O&G Industry Insiders

Since inception, hydraulic fracturing and shale exploitation have been fraught with controversy. Initial opposition mostly came from the far left and environmentalists. So called “fracktivists” include bands of protesters, lobbyists pushing for regulation, and filmmakers documenting mythical terrors. These outsiders have presented challenges for the industry ranging from mild annoyances to outright banishment …

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Permian Preview: 2017 Capex And Production

The biggest regional contributor to the US Shale Revolt will be the Permian Basin. The Permian is the only unconventional oil play where production has not fallen in the downturn. In fact, Permian production today is up 13% since that fateful OPEC meeting two years ago. Following it’s conventional production …

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Weatherford Captures The “Bernard” Effect By Raising A Billion Bucks In 24 Hours

On Wednesday morning (11/16), Weatherford sold 84.5mm shares at $5.40/share in a registered direct equity offering for $456mm. Last week, Infill Thinking predicted that Weatherford would raise equity capital following the stock’s 33%+ gain on CEO Bernard Duroc-Danner’s departure. The market reacted positively to today’s equity raise, Weatherford’s stock rising another 3% …

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Offshore Drilling Theory Testing With Atwood And Rowan

Two months ago, we penned a deep dive on the offshore drilling outlook, concluding that things still must get worse before they get better. Atwood’s conference call yesterday provided a good theory test, and we came away with confirmation of our multi-year hard landing view. Here are the most important fundamental …

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Lest We Forget

In the decade we’ve been covering the oil business, we can’t recall another period of time when technology and efficiency gains were occurring this fast. And as students of this industry, we’d argue that there’s been no time in history when O&G industry methods were advancing at today’s pace. Globally, human …

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The APEX Predator & Weekly Rig Count Trends

There were a lot of smart things about the Nabors analyst day last week. One of those was the timing. Nabors was smart to host its event after most of the other contract drillers hosted their earnings conference calls in the weeks leading up to the event – the timing …

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Nabors Analyst Day First Impression: Silicon Valley Vibes

On Thursday, we attended an all-day event hosted by Nabors Industries in Houston for analysts and investors that follow the company. Nabors went all out on this one, rolling out a 160-slide deck at a full day event that included nine presentations from senior Nabors executives, a rich multi-media campaign, and a half …

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Weatherford CEO Walks Away. Here’s What We Know (And What We Think We Know)

Developing November 9, 2016 4pm central. What Happened: On Wednesday afternoon, Weatherford announced the departure of Chairman and CEO Bernard Duroc-Danner, 63, effective immediately. We explore why and what’s next. To read this update you must be a subscriber. (Current members login here.) Subscribers get Exclusive e-mail newsletters High-caliber, data-driven news, analysis and commentary New angles you’ll only find here …

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Our Favorite Election Day Chart: Hillary vs. Rig Count

We examine an interesting correlation between Hilary’s lead and the rig count bottom. To read this update you must be a subscriber. (Current members login here.) Subscribers get Exclusive e-mail newsletters High-caliber, data-driven news, analysis and commentary New angles you’ll only find here No advertisements, no noise, no clutter Downloadable data for analysts Members-only forum moderated …

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Campaign Speech… Of The Drilling Variety

  Our regular weekly analysis of Baker Hughes rig count statistics is below, but first some campaign speech. This weekend, we are taking a break from the political rhetoric to look at drilling campaigns. For the first time in two years, the US Independents are flexing up their drilling programs. …

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