Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

Clearly, based on the following table, the PPP loan program provided a material source of capital for many smaller firms in the US oilfield at the cyclical bottom, specifically those in the often ignored frac supply chain. Good! We are happy to see that employees in this critical segment of …

Are we there yet? To the bottom? Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and commentary New angles on stories you’ll …

This is a firm we’ve flagged as a potential restructuring candidate in several recent posts (most prominently in a newsletter last week when we wrote “all eyes turn to Covia to see if they announce restructuring”). Today, we provide analysis of the news… Login to see the full update… To …

By The Stats – Membership Resources Provided During 2Q20 In the 90 days ended June 30, 2020, the Infill Thinking research team: published 86 independent research updates, emailed 25 original Infill Thoughts newsletters to active members, issued 14 data releases to Think Sheets® members, got in one last great member meetup …

Our Friday newsletter began with these words, which bear repeating in the wake of Sunday’s news: “Rather than a long, dragged-out process, the erasure of financial obligations in the US oilfield this cycle could play out expeditiously during 2H20 and early-2021, clearing the slate for… consolidation?” Chesapeake’s bankruptcy press release …

With oilfield bankruptcy and restructuring news heating up into 2H20, the industry has fallen into low-cycle restructuring mode much more expediently than in prior cycles. We take a look at some interesting correleations and discuss what it might mean going forward in this chart of the day update… Login to …

Several weeks ago and again on Tuesday, we highlighted a group of oilfield  firms that had yet to report 1Q20 earnings. We warned towards the end of the post that some might announce restructuring along with earnings. On Thursday, several of them did just that. One of them is the …

Our guest post this week comes from the Fort Worth desk of Paul Shearer. His post is our second guest contribution this month that comes from a frac sand specialist on the open market who also majored in journalism. That’s an Infill Thinking Friday guest post series first, and it …

A wellness check this week on on the key economic engines of the oilfield industry reveals some interesting trends… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get …

  Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and commentary New angles on stories you’ll only find here No advertisements, no …

Where is the rig count going to strike bottom and how high will it go in the next cycle? We discuss this and other key issues in land drilling with the insight of the top land rig CEO Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive …

We recently published data showing how the upstream industry’s conversation on critical structural issues has been interrupted by the immediacy of a dual-threat crisis (pandemic + oil price crash). In reality, that data is just the tip of the iceberg… Login to see the full update… To read this update …

Eric Barton probably needs no introduction among Infill Thinking’s readership. He is a well-known frac sand sourcing veteran who has spent close to a decade in supply chain and procurement roles for publicly traded E&P operators. Eric was one of the early pioneers of the now widespread direct sourcing strategy, …

In this time of business turmoil, operational issues can seem like an afterthought. In a piece several weeks ago, we presented data showing how the pandemic and oil price crash have distracted industry leaders from critical field development optimization issues. In this update, we argue that it’s time to get …

Consensus may differ on the shape or strength of the coming recovery, but the focus on three key themes is virtually unanimous across the oilfield business as green shoots form…. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

This week’s bankruptcy filing shows pressure pumper left holding the bag on a multi-million dollar trade payable equal to 6% of their 1Q20 revenue in the latest E&P restructuring case… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

The fine print in the latest frac sand bankruptcy filing is a cautionary tale of hidden frac sand inventory that could weigh on the market when bid activity picks up… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

What happens to land rig contractor market share when the rig count gets demolished? These visuals explain the company-by-company fallout. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members …

Infill Thinking membership includes some of the smartest folks in the oilfield. Here’s what the real oilfield capital allocators are saying about their expectations after the worst downturn in shale’s history… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

We are excited today to share the results of our well-attended industry marketplace survey… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis …

A large frac sand producer has declared bankruptcy… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and commentary New angles on stories …

There’s been a lot of focus on the Lower 48 natural gas plays as a source of relatively strong oilfield service demand in the oil crisis. This week, we took a data-driven look at a variety of activity metrics in the play – a “wellness check” if you will… Login …

Frac sand is highly litigious and public legal records often shed light on behind the scenes operational and market naunces. In this update, we summarize some intel revealed in the allegations of a new legal matter in the sector… Login to see the full update… To read this update and …

Infill Thinking membership includes some of the smartest folks in the oilfield. Here’s what the real oilfield capital allocators are saying about their expectations after the worst downturn in shale’s history… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

It’s still a month until July Fourth, but there are already some bottle rockets being lit in the oilfield. Here’s what the stock market says about the state of things in the oilfield… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

Earlier this week, we outlined an 8-stage “reopening plan” for the US onshore oilfield. Since publishing our initial reopening piece early this week, we’ve encountered several more datapoints that further this narrative. Here are eight of them: Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

By putting our heads together as a group, Infill Thinking members will establish an important baseline this summer for understanding the “what now” and “what next” in the new paradigm emerging for the oilfield marketplace after the worst crisis in shale’s history. Login to see the full update… To read …

Anyone else glad May 2020 is history? The way things are starting off in June 2020, it looks like we’ll be celebrating it’s end as well. That being said, the turn of the month is accompanied by a welcome tone shift in the oilfield conversation at least. As highlighted by …

Shale E&P and service are tough businesses in the best of times. Even absent any disruptive outside forces, there are always pressing technical and business problems to solve – problems that require capital and an intently focused talent pool. Since Infill Thinking’s inception nearly four years ago, we’ve covered the …

From peak to trough, last cycle’s X% rig count in South Texas decline took X months. This cycle, a X% drilling decline has played out in just X months…. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

1Q20 earnings season will go down as one of the most unusual and uncertain public company reporting periods in our lifetime. Adding to the surreal nature of withdrawn guidance and uncertain outlooks this earnings season was the fact that some oilfield management teams… Login to see the full update… To …

We estimate the active frac fleet count across the two big Texas oil plays has fallen from up near X crews in 1Q20 down to only about X active fleets today. This is now old news, but it still takes our breath away to see that in print. Obviously, nobody’s …

This update offers up a mixed bag to the many good Infill Thinking members whose economic interests lie in the oilfields of Midland, Carlsbad, Kermit, and the surrounding area. Feature image taken by the Infill Thinking team on a recent trip to gather in-basin market intel for members… Login to …

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! We wanted to flag a few of our more in-depth pieces published recently in case you missed them and have some downtime to catch up on reading during the long weekend. Here are five relevant reference pieces on the downturn from our research flow over the …

Like with most sectors of the US economy in the Covid-19 world, dealmaking has gone silent in the oilfield water sector. There are three reasons that the recent lack of transactions in this oilfield niche is especially noteworthy: … Login to see the full update… To read this update and …

We spotted some brand new equipment being deployed in an unexpected way in the downturn. This deployment strategy makes a ton of sense though… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, …

On Friday, WaterBridge left $10mm on the table to walk away from an E&P water system acquisition agreed to before the oil price crash that would have cost them another $215mm. What does it mean for E&P water system divestitures? Is the deal pipeline going dry? In this climate, we …

Last week, we covered the latest legal battle in the last mile logistics market with several updates. Here are the latest new developments in the case… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial …

In the wreckage of the land drilling market, there’s a clear bifurcation of fortunes. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis …

A data-driven look at operating activity trends for the Lower 48 local frac sand mining industry. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters …

Setting aside what we all know about frac sand demand in 2Q20 (volumes are terrible), there are some interesting gives and takes at play when it comes to Northern White Sand (NWS) vs local sand market share trends this quarter. Check this out…   Login to see the full update… …

We have arrived at the following ranges for active frac crew counts by basin based on information received from multiple plugged-in contacts we trust. This isn’t necessarily “Gospel,” and you may have hard data you are relying on that falls outside these ranges. But there is value in knowing where …

It’s Tuesday May 12, 2020 and from our desk to yours, here is a roundup of noteworthy downturn datapoints that advance the oilfield business narrative as the bottom approaches. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

Yesterday we summarized the plaintiff’s arguments, which have market implications in the last mile. Today we cover the defendant’s response…. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members …

A last mile logistics firm has asked the court system to declare a leading frac sand producer insolvent, which would nullify a big service contract. In the legal process, some interesting market data is coming to light… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

The Permian Basin rig count is down 50% from March, with little variance in the percentage decline between the Midland and Delaware Basins. But the downtrend does vary county by county… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

You know it’s pretty bad when $25/bbl oil gets us excited again. But here we are, and a rally from -$37 to +$25 in the prompt month ain’t nothing! Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

It seems like everyone from Midland to New York that cares about the oilfield market is running their own frac spread count tracker out of their quarantine quarters these days! So how about some factual inputs and validation for your own version of the latest frac action (or lack thereof)? …

The chart below visualizes US E&P operator budgets in a very important way… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and …

Everywhere you look… every report you read… everyone you talk to… it’s is all telling you the same thing these days. Things are mind-numbingly bad in the US oilfield. Far worse than even the most jaded cynics expected when this crisis began. Empty highways in the Permian. Yards full of …