Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

A few weeks ago, we penned an update titled: “Unintended Consequences – The Crude Price Risk Factor No One Is Talking About… Yet.” Today, we bring you two new datapoints in that narrative. As a reminder, the risk thesis begins with a pending structural transformation in an end market for the heavier …

Our last mile deep dive published earlier this week resulted in the best 24-hour period for signups during Infill Thinking’s short five-month history. We share this not to brag. Instead, we see this as confirmation that the metamorphosis in frac sand’s last mile is indeed transformative with broad implications for the industry …

Late-last year, we introduced our Shale Executive Sentiment Index to try and gauge how management teams from drilling to service to E&P were thinking about growth in 2017. We were able to measure sentiment by quantifying the frequency of references to growth as shale executives spoke to investors. At the time …

Retail giant Amazon and the hydraulic fracturing business have something in common: costly and complex last mile logistics. Distributing proppant requires just as much sophistication as distributing Echo Dots, Yeti Tumblers, and Kleenex. In 2017, more truckloads of sand per well will be pumped than ever before. The frac industry is trying …

Pressure pumping is heating up fast. After reactivating two frac spreads since mid-December, Patterson-UTI revealed yesterday that it will reactivate a third in 2Q17. After it closes on the Seventy-Seven acquisition, we estimate Patterson-UTI will be the fifth largest pressure pumper in the US. That means they get calls from …

On Thursday, Patterson-UTI said it will take delivery of newbuild rigs again during 2017. In the downturn, Patterson-UTI suspended their newbuild program and last took took a delivery in 4Q15. There’s a lot more to this story… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a subscriber. (Current …

Following the well received initial public offering floated by Keane Group (ticker FRAC) in January, ProPetro filed for their IPO on Wednesday. They take the ticker PUMP – stale oilfield comp sheets are getting a trendy new makeover. This Permian pumper is going to grow fast – sign in to read all …

There is optimism in NOV’s tone again. In this update, we share the very latest on their orders and outline what they are seeing from customers in terms of inquiries, needs, and technology demands as pockets of newbuilding return for the firs time in over two years… There’s a lot …

We are all talking about the Permian Basin a ton these days. But is this too general now? As the entire industry descends on the region, it has bifurcated into two distinct geo-markets from a surface perspective… There’s a lot more to this story… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, …

Diamond Offshore was the first offshore driller to host its 4Q16 earnings conference call on Monday morning. In this post, we extract the most poignant statements management made on the call about the future of the offshore drilling business, identifying and corroborating some of the most important themes in the offshore …

In his debut Thursday morning, Krishna’s clear and concise vision for the company’s future greatly impressed us. He knocked it out of the park and launched the biggest turnaround story in the industry. There’s a lot more to this story – find out why we were so impressed and what’s next …

On Wednesday afternoon, Weatherford announced that a new alliance has been formed with Nabors Industries to integrate drilling rigs and services in the US land market. This new service model is something Schlumberger has been talking about and working on for several years now. In this update, we offer our take …

A restructuring press release from Seadrill on Tuesday sent shares tumbling 29%. The press release said achieving viable restructuring would involve “significant dilution to current shareholders” and noted that the company needs a $1bn lifeline. In this context, down shares 29% is about right. But significant dilution to shareholders in a restructuring …

As we write, the US onshore rig count is breaching the 700 mark (it stood at 689 last week). In this update, we explore what happens when a rig count of 900 is reached (which could happen sooner than you might think). We dig into the details of how much …

On February 2, Weatherford’s new CEO Krishna Shivram will host his first earnings conference call as the boss of the company. This is a pivotal moment for the company. As Krishna unveils his strategic vision for the company tomorrow, he will usher in a new era, re-setting expectations for Weatherford for …

Six weeks ago, we identified last mile logistics for frac sand as a potential choke point in the 2017 recovery. Frac sand’s last mile is a tedious dance between operators, trains, trucks, pumps and thousands of tons of sand. Halliburton validated our concerns on Monday evening. There’s a lot more to this …

Last week, we came across a great rundown of oilfield leaders in specific product service lines prepared by EnergyPoint Research. For those new to oilfield services, this list is a great way to get up to speed on who does what. For those that have been around the business for …

Baker Hughes seems to be taking an assembly line approach to innovation, focusing on product launch volume as an important KPI. This is in stark contrast to Steve Jobs’ disruptive approach to innovation, where he would focus on a single game-changing idea for years at a time. We’ve recently become …

The US onshore rig count increased another 19  rigs to 689 running last week. All of this activity coming back means rigs are being moved out of the yards and into the field. This creates a veritable boom for rig movers. We uncovered some proprietary market intelligence on rig moves …

In the US onshore market, skilled workers are returning to the oilfield jobs they were doing a couple years ago en masse. We talked to a drilling consultant in West Texas this week who has been filling his days with dirt work during the downturn. He just got called back …

The hardest sell in the entire O&G industry right now is without question a newbuild offshore rig order. Demand for offshore newbuilds is actually negative. Contractors continue to push out delivery dates, in some cases paying up to avoid taking delivery. With little visibility on a recovery, shipyards are being forced to …

The big public frac sand suppliers (companies like Hi-Crush, US Silica, Fairmount Santrol, and Smart Sand) will be closely watched when they report earnings this quarter. Expectations for increased proppant demand are high as the US shale industry gets back to work. But Big Sand won’t be talking about their own …

One month ago, we wrote in an update to Infill Thinking subscribers that Patterson-UTI was likely to pre-announce better than expected results for 4Q16. Late Monday afternoon, the company did exactly that. Patterson-UTI said in a pre-announcement that its sales during the past quarter were 7% higher than analysts have …

Halliburton’s strategy for 2017 is shifting, and the company will have a whole different M.O. this year. Jeff Miller, Halliburton President expressed his feelings about the new year this way: “in many ways, 2016 was like a bar room brawl where everyone, and I mean everyone, took a punch. But …

Oilfield service pricing moving higher cyclically is a good thing for all our readers (including operators, for current pricing is unsustainable and will destroy capacity in the long run). That said, we stand at a tricky juncture in the cycle for oilfield service company decision makers trying to reset their …

After a brush back in the second week of the year, the US land rig count surged ahead last week. 2017 E&P budgets and drilling programs are kicking in and we expect continued strength over the next 4-6 weeks. Take out a free trial below to see our full analysis of …

Here at Infill Thinking, we don’t forecast the price of oil – we focus on oilfield activity, markets, and companies. But we do regularly talk to some of the best crude oil minds in the business. When they share noteworthy observations, we pass them along. So when one of these …

This morning, Schlumberger management hosted a conference call with analysts to discuss 4Q16 results and the 2017 outlook. The company kicked off oilfield service earnings season on a positive note. Following nine consecutive quarters of relentless workforce reductions, cost cutting, and restructuring efforts, Schlumberger is restoring focus on the pursuit …

The big to-do in Washington today isn’t the only inauguration going today. In New York, the markets inaugurated Keane Group Inc. as the newest publicly traded frac outfit today. In this update, we discuss the IPO’s early performance and introduce the newest public frac company. To read this update and receive our research …

Schlumberger kicks off 4Q earnings season this week, hosting a conference call Friday morning to discuss the 2017 outlook. During the fourth quarter, a cyclical inflection point materialized in the US onshore market. A key question during the calls this earnings season will be how sustainable the cyclical growth trajectory …

Permian oilfield service and drilling contractors are having one great start to the year. Contractors got another dose of good news yesterday as Noble Energy expanded in the Permian Basin with the acquisition of Clayton Williams. In this update, we discuss why the deal is good for oilfield service contractors …

In the first months of the downturn, we began warning that a workforce designed for $100 oil is not the same one needed at $50 oil. However, the oilfield service industry right sized extremely quickly to lower activity levels over the past two years. We’ll soon see just how surgical these cuts …

Nothing can go up and to the right forever, especially not the rig count. The US onshore rig count fell back by six units this week. This break is actually a good thing and we explain why and break down the weekly rig count in in this post. To read …

WPX Energy joined in the Permian deal making fray, announcing a $775mm Delaware Basin acquisition late Thursday. 2017 operating plan announcements from Permian Independents aren’t the standard fare this year. We are used beginning of year E&P operating plans stating capex, production, and drilling program summaries. This year they are …

In a related update published last week, we described how the brute force enterprise of nano-darcy E&P is becoming more elegant. Elegance is achieved as sub-surface understanding moves closer to a realistic picture of the reservoir. Enhancing sub-surface understanding is where leading innovators in shale are focused today. They are …

News from Parsley Energy and SM Energy on Tuesday continued the Great Permian Migration trend this week. We break down the news into the most important incremental bullet points and provide a few words on the bigger picture trend in the Permian. By the way, if you are looking to …

Last week we published a list of four companies we expect to make oil service acquisitions during 2017. Apparently grass isn’t growing under our buyers feet – less than a week after our preview, one of them has already made a purchase. To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

On February 2, Weatherford’s new CEO Krishna Shivram will talk to investors for the first time as the boss of the company. He’s got some work to do. The market will be looking for a restoration of confidence. That means Krishna needs to have a story for the new Weatherford …

Another week of US onshore rig count gains is in the books. But before we quantify that in our weekly statistical update (see full update below), the other side of the equation deserves a few words. Everyone is focused on rising rig counts today. Tomorrow they’ll be focused on dayrates. And …

We don’t normally republish articles from third party sources in full. But an in depth survey on the state of the Permian released at the end of last year is making the rounds this week. And if you haven’t seen it yet, it is definitely worth taking a look. Runaway …

In E&P, most analysts expect M&A action to be hot and heavy during the first half of 2017. There is less consensus about a wave of M&A coming in oilfield service (OFS), partly because of challenging valuations. So we put pen to paper this week and came up with the …

On a conference call in 2011, the always eloquent Clay Williams of National Oilwell Varco (then CFO, now CEO) said: The unconventional shale model is utterly unlike drilling a generation ago, which saw fleeting glimpses of precious darcy reservoir rock here or there, elusive four-way closure, a rare and fortuitous geologic …

The shale industry kicked off the new year with a continuation of the great migration to the Permian Basin. This morning SM Energy announced the sale of its third party operated assets in the Eagle Ford, including its ownership interest in related midstream assets, for $800 million. In this update we …

US land drillers sent 2016 packing with a bang. Since May, the drilling recovery has looked exceptionally strong on a percentage basis. The December trend looked exceptionally strong on an absolute basis too with 65 US rigs returning to work. December 2016 delivered the best absolute rig count increase of …

Two years into the downturn and at oil prices just half of prior highs, the US tight oil industry has begun to stage a recovery. We’ve all seen this new optimism in the tangible data. Rig count, capex, headcount, frac utilization – these are just a few of the US …

Each winter, we look forward to unwrapping the annual rig census report released by National Oilwell Varco. With it’s uniquely comprehensive rig market history, the report provides good perspective on the competitive landscape for drilling rigs around the world. There were no surprises on the demand side this year – …

It’s fair to say that the blow out preventer (BOP) business model is being re-shaped as we write. 10 months ago, GE and Diamond introduced a new BOP arrangement to the marketplace – one that transfers up-time responsibility to the OEM. This week, the largest BOP supplier moved to implement …

In an interim update posted this morning, oilfield chemical supplier Flotek positively revised its outlook to account for a more constructive US drilling and completions market as 2016 winds down. Last week we wrote about how the consensus 4Q slump is a no show this year. Flotek’s announcement provides confirmation and …

The US land drilling market is exiting the worst downturn in history. Why not follow that with the sharpest rebound ever? That is exactly what is happening now. Since bottoming about 30 weeks ago, the US rig count has increased 60%. The 1985 recovery outpaced this one for 25 weeks before falling back. The only …

In the US, the O&G industry has begun to hire staff again for the first time in two years. We snapped this encouraging photo in front of a Halliburton completions yard while touring the Permian Basin in early-December. Source: InfillThinking.com Given what we know about the ongoing recovery and a …