Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

There’s been a lot of focus on the Lower 48 natural gas plays as a source of relatively strong oilfield service demand in the oil crisis. This week, we took a data-driven look at a variety of activity metrics in the play – a “wellness check” if you will… Login …

Frac sand is highly litigious and public legal records often shed light on behind the scenes operational and market naunces. In this update, we summarize some intel revealed in the allegations of a new legal matter in the sector… Login to see the full update… To read this update and …

Infill Thinking membership includes some of the smartest folks in the oilfield. Here’s what the real oilfield capital allocators are saying about their expectations after the worst downturn in shale’s history… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

It’s still a month until July Fourth, but there are already some bottle rockets being lit in the oilfield. Here’s what the stock market says about the state of things in the oilfield… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

Earlier this week, we outlined an 8-stage “reopening plan” for the US onshore oilfield. Since publishing our initial reopening piece early this week, we’ve encountered several more datapoints that further this narrative. Here are eight of them: Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

By putting our heads together as a group, Infill Thinking members will establish an important baseline this summer for understanding the “what now” and “what next” in the new paradigm emerging for the oilfield marketplace after the worst crisis in shale’s history. Login to see the full update… To read …

Anyone else glad May 2020 is history? The way things are starting off in June 2020, it looks like we’ll be celebrating it’s end as well. That being said, the turn of the month is accompanied by a welcome tone shift in the oilfield conversation at least. As highlighted by …

Shale E&P and service are tough businesses in the best of times. Even absent any disruptive outside forces, there are always pressing technical and business problems to solve – problems that require capital and an intently focused talent pool. Since Infill Thinking’s inception nearly four years ago, we’ve covered the …

From peak to trough, last cycle’s X% rig count in South Texas decline took X months. This cycle, a X% drilling decline has played out in just X months…. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

1Q20 earnings season will go down as one of the most unusual and uncertain public company reporting periods in our lifetime. Adding to the surreal nature of withdrawn guidance and uncertain outlooks this earnings season was the fact that some oilfield management teams… Login to see the full update… To …

We estimate the active frac fleet count across the two big Texas oil plays has fallen from up near X crews in 1Q20 down to only about X active fleets today. This is now old news, but it still takes our breath away to see that in print. Obviously, nobody’s …

This update offers up a mixed bag to the many good Infill Thinking members whose economic interests lie in the oilfields of Midland, Carlsbad, Kermit, and the surrounding area. Feature image taken by the Infill Thinking team on a recent trip to gather in-basin market intel for members… Login to …

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! We wanted to flag a few of our more in-depth pieces published recently in case you missed them and have some downtime to catch up on reading during the long weekend. Here are five relevant reference pieces on the downturn from our research flow over the …

Like with most sectors of the US economy in the Covid-19 world, dealmaking has gone silent in the oilfield water sector. There are three reasons that the recent lack of transactions in this oilfield niche is especially noteworthy: … Login to see the full update… To read this update and …

We spotted some brand new equipment being deployed in an unexpected way in the downturn. This deployment strategy makes a ton of sense though… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, …

On Friday, WaterBridge left $10mm on the table to walk away from an E&P water system acquisition agreed to before the oil price crash that would have cost them another $215mm. What does it mean for E&P water system divestitures? Is the deal pipeline going dry? In this climate, we …

Last week, we covered the latest legal battle in the last mile logistics market with several updates. Here are the latest new developments in the case… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial …

In the wreckage of the land drilling market, there’s a clear bifurcation of fortunes. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis …

A data-driven look at operating activity trends for the Lower 48 local frac sand mining industry. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters …

Setting aside what we all know about frac sand demand in 2Q20 (volumes are terrible), there are some interesting gives and takes at play when it comes to Northern White Sand (NWS) vs local sand market share trends this quarter. Check this out…   Login to see the full update… …

We have arrived at the following ranges for active frac crew counts by basin based on information received from multiple plugged-in contacts we trust. This isn’t necessarily “Gospel,” and you may have hard data you are relying on that falls outside these ranges. But there is value in knowing where …

It’s Tuesday May 12, 2020 and from our desk to yours, here is a roundup of noteworthy downturn datapoints that advance the oilfield business narrative as the bottom approaches. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

Yesterday we summarized the plaintiff’s arguments, which have market implications in the last mile. Today we cover the defendant’s response…. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members …

A last mile logistics firm has asked the court system to declare a leading frac sand producer insolvent, which would nullify a big service contract. In the legal process, some interesting market data is coming to light… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

The Permian Basin rig count is down 50% from March, with little variance in the percentage decline between the Midland and Delaware Basins. But the downtrend does vary county by county… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

You know it’s pretty bad when $25/bbl oil gets us excited again. But here we are, and a rally from -$37 to +$25 in the prompt month ain’t nothing! Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

It seems like everyone from Midland to New York that cares about the oilfield market is running their own frac spread count tracker out of their quarantine quarters these days! So how about some factual inputs and validation for your own version of the latest frac action (or lack thereof)? …

The chart below visualizes US E&P operator budgets in a very important way… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and …

Everywhere you look… every report you read… everyone you talk to… it’s is all telling you the same thing these days. Things are mind-numbingly bad in the US oilfield. Far worse than even the most jaded cynics expected when this crisis began. Empty highways in the Permian. Yards full of …

Three land drillers have given rig count guidance for how far their rig counts are expected to fall by the end of 2Q20 so far. While we await the other four or five land drillers we track to report, the sum of rig count guidance so far tells us some …

The picture you’ll find in this update might just become the iconic shot that defines this downturn – similar to those stacked rigs in that H&P yard off Business 20 in North Odessa in the last downturn… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

A telling photo from the field as well as 7 quick takeaways from US Silica’s conversation this morning… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive …

In the company’s press release Thursday evening, Solaris said that activity could decline by 75% to 85% sequentially in the second quarter. This is in line with Infill Thinking predictions for US frac activity declines made here about three weeks ago. This deep activity cut prediction is also supported by …

We have reviewed a draft of the proration order and share it and something that jumps out at us here… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members …

As 1Q20 E&P earnings season gets under way, there are just a handful of US E&P operators that haven’t publicly disclosed how much they’ll cut their 2020 spending programs in the wake of the crisis. There are some common traits shared by some of these companies including… a) gas exposure …

This chart is gut wrenching, and we haven’t even gotten into May and June yet, which could be even worse. Our hearts ache with the impacted oilfield workers (and their families) that make all the stuff we love to write about happen. Login to see the full update… To read …

How bad is the frac drought getting out in the Permian Basin? We discuss… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis …

We are currently in the throes of the sharpest rig count contraction in history, and we expect the next several weeks to register continued large drops as the US land rig count is likely to fall sub-200. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our …

“Give me some good news for a change,” you say? Our pleasure! Here is a chart you cannot miss because it’s all anyone’s going to be talking about as tight oil gets shut in. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you …

The US government has approved two rounds of “Paycheck Protection Program” (PPP) funding totaling nearly $700bn. The program offers partially forgivable loans of up to $10mm for companies with 500 or less employees. The funds are trickling into the oilfield, and rightly so. Here’s a look at the energy companies …

Following the Halliburton call on Monday, we’ve heard from three more management teams this week that have no visibility on the oilfield service market outlook in 2020. That said, two of these three did say some pretty interesting things about the current market climate in the Lower 48 oilpatch. Here …

We checked in with a whole bunch of our oilfield service and E&P contacts this week. What we heard from them sure sounds like complete capitulation in the oilfield market. The bottom is coming into focus. Here’s what folks we talk to are saying… Login to see the full update… …

By The Stats – Membership Resources Provided During 1Q20 In the 90 days ended March 31, 2020, the Infill Thinking research team: published 86 independent research updates, emailed 25 original Infill Thoughts newsletters to active members, issued 14 data releases to Think Sheets® members, got in one last great member meetup …

You’ve gotta see this chart to believe it. Consider our minds blown. Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If your free trial has expired, renew here. (Current members login here.) Members get Exclusive research update newsletters High-caliber, data-driven analysis and commentary …

On an historic Monday when the WTI front month contract fell more than 300% into negative territory, natural gas spot prices were up 10%! Here’s a look at bifurcating fortunes by basin focus… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

This morning at 8am central, Halliburton will host their 1Q20 earnings call. Needless to say, their remarks on challenging Lower 48 business conditions will be closely watched. While outlook / guidance could be light since visibility is limited, we expect some good color on current market conditions to come from …

We know you know the logic, but on days like today, it’s good to read and re-read the crude oil cyclical rationale in it’s simplest form, which is as follows: Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

Towards the end of Q&A during today’s call, came perhaps the most interesting thing that management said about the US market all morning. Specifically, Schlumberger was asked where the US frac fleet count might bottom. Management used the opportunity presented by this question to refute some of the doomsday frac …

The Texas Railroad Commission (and a whole bunch of oilfield folks) had a very busy Tuesday. The three Commissioners hosted a nearly 9-hour long virtual open hearing on Tuesday, taking petitions for and against prorating Texas oil production. 20,000 viewers tuned in to watch the webcast. A whopping 53 industry …

Torn by two extreme market forces (oil demand destruction from the lockdown and geopolitical supplier actions), US oil prices are being distorted and dislocated beyond recognition. Here’s how the actual spot bids in the field are trending across various grades and basins (spoiler alert, it isn’t pretty and the lowest …