Thinking Ahead

This past weekend, we read a half dozen transcripts of earnings calls from the oil majors and national oil companies (NOCs). The big guys are all whistling the same tune. They are successfully re-engineering pending deepwater projects to fit $50 oil (and below). They are ready to clear their final investment decision …

As we write, the US onshore rig count is breaching the 700 mark (it stood at 689 last week). In this update, we explore what happens when a rig count of 900 is reached (which could happen sooner than you might think). We dig into the details of how much …

Here at Infill Thinking, we don’t forecast the price of oil – we focus on oilfield activity, markets, and companies. But we do regularly talk to some of the best crude oil minds in the business. When they share noteworthy observations, we pass them along. So when one of these …

In the first months of the downturn, we began warning that a workforce designed for $100 oil is not the same one needed at $50 oil. However, the oilfield service industry right sized extremely quickly to lower activity levels over the past two years. We’ll soon see just how surgical these cuts …

Two years into the downturn and at oil prices just half of prior highs, the US tight oil industry has begun to stage a recovery. We’ve all seen this new optimism in the tangible data. Rig count, capex, headcount, frac utilization – these are just a few of the US …

If OPEC’s November 30th decision to cut production was like adding tinder to smoldering embers, then progress made over this past weekend was like dumping gasoline on the fire. Lower 48 oilfield activity will gather steam (and quickly) in early-2017. As the upstream supply chain tightens early in the new year, …

The period from 2009-2014 was affectionately dubbed the US Shale Revolution. During the “revolution,” 40 years of American production declines were reversed in 5 with horizontal drilling and fracing. The revolution was a capital-intensive growth phase enabled by high oil prices. Today, we submit a new term to describe the …

Infill Thinking’s launch 10 days ago coincides with the arrival of a young oilfield recovery. The definition of recovery is different this time – shallower and more gradual than before – but there is no doubt that, at a minimum, oilfield contraction is abating. Against this backdrop, our early updates …

Oilfield earnings season begins this week with Halliburton’s conference call. The tone on this upcoming round of calls is likely to be more positive than any time in recent memory. In this Thinking Ahead we outline key calls to monitor and discuss seven key themes we expect to be prevalent during the imminent earnings season. …

In the upstream sector, carnage isn’t hard to find. In fact, we’ve all become a bit desensitized to it. But in this beaten-up oilfield, the offshore drillers stand out, not just for recent hardships but because years of austerity lie ahead. A construction overhang factors in, but that’s not the only problem facing the offshore industry. …