Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

Several weeks ago and again on Tuesday, we highlighted a group of oilfield  firms that had yet to report 1Q20 earnings. We warned towards the end of the post that some might announce restructuring along with earnings. On Thursday, several of them did just that. One of them is the …

Our guest post this week comes from the Fort Worth desk of Paul Shearer. His post is our second guest contribution this month that comes from a frac sand specialist on the open market who also majored in journalism. That’s an Infill Thinking Friday guest post series first, and it …

A wellness check this week on on the key economic engines of the oilfield industry reveals some interesting trends… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new …

  There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership has expired, please email us to discuss our current subscription options at [email protected]. (Current …

Where is the rig count going to strike bottom and how high will it go in the next cycle? We discuss this and other key issues in land drilling with the insight of the top land rig CEO There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full …

We recently published data showing how the upstream industry’s conversation on critical structural issues has been interrupted by the immediacy of a dual-threat crisis (pandemic + oil price crash). In reality, that data is just the tip of the iceberg… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see …

Eric Barton probably needs no introduction among Infill Thinking’s readership. He is a well-known frac sand sourcing veteran who has spent close to a decade in supply chain and procurement roles for publicly traded E&P operators. Eric was one of the early pioneers of the now widespread direct sourcing strategy, …

In this time of business turmoil, operational issues can seem like an afterthought. In a piece several weeks ago, we presented data showing how the pandemic and oil price crash have distracted industry leaders from critical field development optimization issues. In this update, we argue that it’s time to get …

Consensus may differ on the shape or strength of the coming recovery, but the focus on three key themes is virtually unanimous across the oilfield business as green shoots form…. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our …

This week’s bankruptcy filing shows pressure pumper left holding the bag on a multi-million dollar trade payable equal to 6% of their 1Q20 revenue in the latest E&P restructuring case… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our …

The fine print in the latest frac sand bankruptcy filing is a cautionary tale of hidden frac sand inventory that could weigh on the market when bid activity picks up… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our …

What happens to land rig contractor market share when the rig count gets demolished? These visuals explain the company-by-company fallout. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

Infill Thinking membership includes some of the smartest folks in the oilfield. Here’s what the real oilfield capital allocators are saying about their expectations after the worst downturn in shale’s history… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive …

We are excited today to share the results of our well-attended industry marketplace survey… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your …

A large frac sand producer has declared bankruptcy… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership has expired, please email us …

There’s been a lot of focus on the Lower 48 natural gas plays as a source of relatively strong oilfield service demand in the oil crisis. This week, we took a data-driven look at a variety of activity metrics in the play – a “wellness check” if you will… There’s …

Frac sand is highly litigious and public legal records often shed light on behind the scenes operational and market naunces. In this update, we summarize some intel revealed in the allegations of a new legal matter in the sector… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

Infill Thinking membership includes some of the smartest folks in the oilfield. Here’s what the real oilfield capital allocators are saying about their expectations after the worst downturn in shale’s history… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive …

It’s still a month until July Fourth, but there are already some bottle rockets being lit in the oilfield. Here’s what the stock market says about the state of things in the oilfield… Login to see the full update… To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

Earlier this week, we outlined an 8-stage “reopening plan” for the US onshore oilfield. Since publishing our initial reopening piece early this week, we’ve encountered several more datapoints that further this narrative. Here are eight of them: There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

By putting our heads together as a group, Infill Thinking members will establish an important baseline this summer for understanding the “what now” and “what next” in the new paradigm emerging for the oilfield marketplace after the worst crisis in shale’s history. There’s a lot more to this story… Login …

Anyone else glad May 2020 is history? The way things are starting off in June 2020, it looks like we’ll be celebrating it’s end as well. That being said, the turn of the month is accompanied by a welcome tone shift in the oilfield conversation at least. As highlighted by …

Shale E&P and service are tough businesses in the best of times. Even absent any disruptive outside forces, there are always pressing technical and business problems to solve – problems that require capital and an intently focused talent pool. Since Infill Thinking’s inception nearly four years ago, we’ve covered the …

From peak to trough, last cycle’s X% rig count in South Texas decline took X months. This cycle, a X% drilling decline has played out in just X months…. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research …

1Q20 earnings season will go down as one of the most unusual and uncertain public company reporting periods in our lifetime. Adding to the surreal nature of withdrawn guidance and uncertain outlooks this earnings season was the fact that some oilfield management teams… There’s a lot more to this story… …

We estimate the active frac fleet count across the two big Texas oil plays has fallen from up near X crews in 1Q20 down to only about X active fleets today. This is now old news, but it still takes our breath away to see that in print. Obviously, nobody’s …

This update offers up a mixed bag to the many good Infill Thinking members whose economic interests lie in the oilfields of Midland, Carlsbad, Kermit, and the surrounding area. Feature image taken by the Infill Thinking team on a recent trip to gather in-basin market intel for members… There’s a …

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! We wanted to flag a few of our more in-depth pieces published recently in case you missed them and have some downtime to catch up on reading during the long weekend. Here are five relevant reference pieces on the downturn from our research flow over the …

Like with most sectors of the US economy in the Covid-19 world, dealmaking has gone silent in the oilfield water sector. There are three reasons that the recent lack of transactions in this oilfield niche is especially noteworthy: … There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

We spotted some brand new equipment being deployed in an unexpected way in the downturn. This deployment strategy makes a ton of sense though… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

On Friday, WaterBridge left $10mm on the table to walk away from an E&P water system acquisition agreed to before the oil price crash that would have cost them another $215mm. What does it mean for E&P water system divestitures? Is the deal pipeline going dry? In this climate, we …

Last week, we covered the latest legal battle in the last mile logistics market with several updates. Here are the latest new developments in the case… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

In the wreckage of the land drilling market, there’s a clear bifurcation of fortunes. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your …

A data-driven look at operating activity trends for the Lower 48 local frac sand mining industry. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, …

Setting aside what we all know about frac sand demand in 2Q20 (volumes are terrible), there are some interesting gives and takes at play when it comes to Northern White Sand (NWS) vs local sand market share trends this quarter. Check this out…   There’s a lot more to this …

We have arrived at the following ranges for active frac crew counts by basin based on information received from multiple plugged-in contacts we trust. This isn’t necessarily “Gospel,” and you may have hard data you are relying on that falls outside these ranges. But there is value in knowing where …

It’s Tuesday May 12, 2020 and from our desk to yours, here is a roundup of noteworthy downturn datapoints that advance the oilfield business narrative as the bottom approaches. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research …

Yesterday we summarized the plaintiff’s arguments, which have market implications in the last mile. Today we cover the defendant’s response…. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

A last mile logistics firm has asked the court system to declare a leading frac sand producer insolvent, which would nullify a big service contract. In the legal process, some interesting market data is coming to light… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

The Permian Basin rig count is down 50% from March, with little variance in the percentage decline between the Midland and Delaware Basins. But the downtrend does vary county by county… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive …

You know it’s pretty bad when $25/bbl oil gets us excited again. But here we are, and a rally from -$37 to +$25 in the prompt month ain’t nothing! There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research …

It seems like everyone from Midland to New York that cares about the oilfield market is running their own frac spread count tracker out of their quarantine quarters these days! So how about some factual inputs and validation for your own version of the latest frac action (or lack thereof)? …

The chart below visualizes US E&P operator budgets in a very important way… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership …

Everywhere you look… every report you read… everyone you talk to… it’s is all telling you the same thing these days. Things are mind-numbingly bad in the US oilfield. Far worse than even the most jaded cynics expected when this crisis began. Empty highways in the Permian. Yards full of …

Three land drillers have given rig count guidance for how far their rig counts are expected to fall by the end of 2Q20 so far. While we await the other four or five land drillers we track to report, the sum of rig count guidance so far tells us some …

The picture you’ll find in this update might just become the iconic shot that defines this downturn – similar to those stacked rigs in that H&P yard off Business 20 in North Odessa in the last downturn… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  …

A telling photo from the field as well as 7 quick takeaways from US Silica’s conversation this morning… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to …

In the company’s press release Thursday evening, Solaris said that activity could decline by 75% to 85% sequentially in the second quarter. This is in line with Infill Thinking predictions for US frac activity declines made here about three weeks ago. This deep activity cut prediction is also supported by …

We have reviewed a draft of the proration order and share it and something that jumps out at us here… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

As 1Q20 E&P earnings season gets under way, there are just a handful of US E&P operators that haven’t publicly disclosed how much they’ll cut their 2020 spending programs in the wake of the crisis. There are some common traits shared by some of these companies including… a) gas exposure …