Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

As the year draws to a close, here’s a look around the nation at the hottest onshore drilling basins and how they stack up this year on activity growth. Also included is a discussion of how the actual overall trend in US drilling compares to expectations a year ago and …

Well, after all the outcry leading up to mandate day, did anyone really expect a smooth start? On Monday December 18, soft enforcement of the new electronic logging device (ELD) rules began. We discuss what happened when shifts began in this new era and what it may mean for the …

In July, we wrote about the risk of hidden delays for trucks carrying locally sourced frac sand from new plants direct to wells, noting that some challenges are impossible to understand by simply looking at a map. These are things like stop lights, rail crossings, road quality, school zones, left …

Water sourcing comes up often in our conversations with all sorts of different Permian Basin oilfield participants these days. Extreme thirst is the tight oil industry’s open secret – sourcing is more opaque than supply chain elements like rigs, horsepower, pipe and sand. We quantify surging water use in West …

Experienced E&P strategist Paul Sparks has been thinking about the future of what today is a highly fragmented E&P industry. As the US unconventional business matures, will it always be run by 50+ public Independents and hundreds of smaller privates? Or is mass consolidation the future? History and some of …

50% of the 70 industry respondents to our recent 2018 outlook survey predicted that the US frac spread count would return to the prior cyclical high (450) next year. In our analysis of the survey results, we noted that this development would require material frac horsepower newbuild orders to be placed. …

2017 was Infill Thinking’s first full year in business. Readership growth this year has far exceeded my initial expectations, and the Infill Thinking team is honored and grateful to have earned your trust in our market intel. This year, we turned down multiple requests from oilfield companies interested in advertising …

Unimin and Fairmount Santrol have decided to combine in a merger expected to close mid-2018. The deal will create the largest frac sand supplier in the US. The merger of these two sand bellwethers has been rumored “seriously” since October and “casually” since well before that. In fact, back in …

Since April, the geo-transformation of the frac sand business has accelerated. In the following charts, we’ve taken our previously published rigs vs. mines cartographical analysis a step further. In the slideshow below, we’ve included a map of historical frac sand supply sources, the new map with three West Texas in-basin …

On Wednesday, the fierce competition that has characterized the Permian Basin frac sand rush all year will be put on hold for a couple hours. We have exclusive details on why and what’s going on in this update…   There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

For more than two years, the North American Energy industry has struggled with low prices. Companies have idled workers and equipment, squeezed vendors, and taken additional cost cutting measures. But our problem isn’t oil prices. Rather, it’s the self-inflicted costs.   There’s a lot more to this story… Login to …

On Tuesday, we warned that by taking their foot of the capex gas pedal at this point in the cycle, the Independents risk ceding share in shale development to the Majors. On Wednesday, Chevron’s 2018 budget release confirmed that this indeed will happen if actions follow words. There’s a lot …

During recent conversations with several Permian Basin industry contacts, we caught wind that a new fresh water entrant is marketing third party fresh water via pipeline to the new construction frac sand mines going in around Kermit. We did a bit more digging and then called the company and received …

We believe the recent surge of returns-focus rhetoric from E&Ps is having a considerable impact on consensus expectations for US shale E&P spending. This was evident in our recent survey, where participants expressed a bullish view on y/y oil price trends yet waxed conservative on the spending outlook. In this …

For this update, Lonquist & Co. has shared some independently collected West Texas frac sand sample data with Infill Thinking. The results establish some third-party benchmarks for locally-sourced Permian proppant specs. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our …

As E&P spending continues to recover, land driller spending looks poised to embark on a fourth straight year of decline. Precision Drilling released their 2018 capex program on Monday. We analyze the numbers in this update… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To …

Last week, we asked readers to answer 13 questions about the outlook for 2018. The focus of our survey was key trends and themes in the US onshore business. Participation was strong, with a diverse mix of respondents – all of whom are well informed on Lower 48 trends. In …

Since 2013, the offshore drillers have underperformed six other upstream sectors we track by an average of 70%. In this update we look beyond the market cap dislocation at a key hire and recent IPO filings. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To …

Each Friday in the last month of each quarter, we pass our keyboard to an Infill Thinking subscriber to weigh in from their field. In October, two ENGOs provided a notice to the Comptrollers office of their intent to petition the US Fish and Wildlife Service to list the dunes …

Three Permian Basin mines are producing frac sand today.  Over the next four months, six more plants are planned to begin commercial production in the Basin. Will all go according to plan? And who will win the race to be the next plant online? We have field-level updates on all …

We poll subscribers on key questions about the 2018 oilfield service outlook. Our Q&A will reveal consensus among some of the industry’s smartest minds about 2018 trends, themes, and debates. To participate and view the results, please login or subscribe. At Infill Thinking, we are very aware of what our …

In our weekly rig count update this week, we take a look at how frac sand volume per rig has trended the past few years. Plotting the sand/rig ratio reveals a rapid sea change in the Lower 48 oilfield service value chain.   There’s a lot more to this story… …

If oil drivers are leaving for sand in larger numbers now, that would suggest that frac sand hauling rates may have reached a tipping point that converts drivers. We examine the differences in hauling oil vs. sand both pay and scope and discuss a potential tipping point that could have …

High winds ripped through the West Texas dune strip during the past couple days, reminding us of fugitive dust and inventory erosion risks. West Texas poses a unique environmental challenge that the frac sand mining industry has never had to deal with at scale before. We believe wind will be …

Helmerich & Payne closed out C3Q17 earnings season for the land drillers late-last week. Here are the three statements that we found most interesting… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a …

There’s a new reader-submitted post in our thinking aloud forum, please visit the thread here to read and discuss how (and potentially why) the oil price rally is masking some important disconnects. Emerging discounts are impacting tight oil producers who sell product based of WTI benchmarks, but it may not …

This is the kind of update we hate to write. Every O&G company we know goes to great lengths avoid fatal accidents. Few industries emphasize safety as much as O&G. But in a physical business like this, occupational hazards are very real. Our coverage will serve two purposes and two …

Infill Thinking visited the third Permian Basin frac sand mine to come online back when it was under construction in August. With the plant coming online last week, we share exclusive details from our time on site with management as well as the very latest on the startup from our …

Today we are wrapping up our frac sand scattershooting series with our third installment.   feature image used with creative commons license There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

We did some math on the record breaking well announced by the STACK leader this week. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, …

Anadarko’s 2018 capital spending program was released Thursday morning. It is one of the first detailed 2018 E&P budgets to be released this budget season. Given their focus on discipline and returns and leadership in crafting a sustainable framework for developing tight oil, Anadarko’s E&P capex budget should help establish …

In this weekly rig count update, we take a quick look at the rig count evolution of today’s two most important US onshore markets: West Texas and Oklahoma. You may remember the following chart from an update early this year when we wrote about the bifurcated Permian market place….   …

We checked in with Aequor management out in Culberson County for an update on the Permian Basin’s second online frac sand mine. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

The recovery in oilfield service (OFS) activity and pricing outside the US has been waiting in the wings for three years. Outside the US, there have only been a few international bright spots – non-US oilfield growth has been non-existent. Most countries’ oilfield service markets have been dragging bottom all …

Another installment in our popular series of tidbits on Permian Basin frac sand mine scene happenings. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, …

On the heels of an industry-first Delaware Basin water deal signed about a week ago comes a report from a Permian rancher to our desk that a historic spring has gone dry. In this update, we examine the brackish water requirements implied by frac sand volumes, discuss the dry spring’s …

US Silica reported better than expected 3Q17 and a very strong outlook for 2018 Monday evening. Tuesday morning on the conference call, we recorded market insights on SandBox, West Texas capacity, updates on US Silica’s Crane & Lamesa plants, 2018 overall demand, contracting activity, the outlook for Northern White, among …

The following list is baker’s dozen of assorted datapoints and tidbits we’ve heard about the frac sand business over the past couple weeks. This piece addresses the goings-on in Permian frac sand. We’ll have another installment of frac sand scattershooting later this week to address trends in the broader market. …

A new type of land rig is being proposed to tackle mega-pads in the very deepest sections of the Wolfcamp. In this post, check out the latest on operator interest as well as the features that make this rig unique and cost about 30% more than the current shale-ready rig …

This week, E&P management teams talked with investors about the big picture framework and mindset this budget season. We recap the key takeaways from the key players and review the overarching themes of 2018 budget season and what this means for oilfield service contractors. There’s a lot more to this …

The unrivaled STACK E&P leader (and major Delaware player) said this Wednesday that they have contracted all of their 2018 frac sand requirements. This is newsworthy in and of itself, but more noteworthy is the geographical sourcing. We provide details and think through the market implications here. There’s a lot …

Last quarter, Mark was just getting his footing and undertaking a strategic review of the organization he inherited. This quarter, he got much more specific on what the Weatherford of the future will look like. Mark’s plan is more than a fresh coat of paint and new granite counter-tops. It’s …

On Tuesday, Forum Energy Technologies said their NAM completions business has become their largest revenue generator. Completions and production/infrastructure (C&P) segment revenues contribute 80% of the global oilfield products company’ top line. Moreover, 85% of Forum’s sales are onshore and 80% come from North America (NAM). This is a company …

A very constructive conference call this morning went along way to offsetting the investor disappointment on volumes sold during 3Q that we noted yesterday in this update. The stock reversed its after-hours decline and is trading materially higher this morning. Here are the key points we jotted down from the …

Quick take after Hi-Crush released earnings this afternoon. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your membership has expired, please email us …

The following brief analytical editorial was excerpted from our twice-weekly newsletter on Tuesday October 31, 2017.   There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill …

There is a new oilfield service company scheduled to price a $300mm initial public equity offering on November 3. This isn’t an ordinary IPO though – it is a blank check company backed by some oilfield industry titans.   There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full …

Wind presents a big risk factor for West Texas mines. It’s a challenge that mine builders don’t have to design to in Wisconsin, so cookie cutter designs may face issues with open sand pile erosion. After a windy week in West Texas, we put pen to paper to chart the …

Three of the largest US land drillers (together controlling 35% of the market) openly resisted the downward trending rig count last week. The US land rig count fell in 9 of the last 12 weeks and is off 5% from peak. The prevailing view has been that this decline would …

During earnings season, an ocean of content comes at you fast. 7,000 words are spoken on the average earnings conference call. There were 27 oilfield earnings conference calls this week. We did the math. That’s the word count equivalent of 200 Infill Thinking posts. How much of this info overload …