Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

We updated our table of planned frac sand mining facilities in the Permian after several readers asked for the latest file this week. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

In our latest US onshore rig count forecast (updated in April), we estimated that active drilling rigs would peak at 950 units this year. As we stand today with 934 rigs turning to the right, our prediction leaves only ~16 rig additions left until hitting a US drilling plateau in …

A year from now on the Kermit blacktop, it will be 110° Fahrenheit with a 90% chance of gridlock. We believe competitive advantage will increasingly be tied to location and logistics as in-basin mines battle for market share. In this update, we rank each of the hopeful new mines based …

We believe that our readers’ response to news can often be more compelling than the report itself, for our readership comprises some of the industry’s brightest minds, including folks who are working on (or buying from) similar initiatives in the field. See what your fellow Infill Thinkers are saying about …

If 2H17 shale capex were on the operating table, our diagnosis would be that the patient’s vitals are stable and within normal limits. But as the old newspaper saying goes: “if it bleeds it leads,” so many reports continue to chose fear over reality. We dig into the numbers to …

There is a new discussion topic over in our Thinking Aloud forum this morning It revolves around the apparent return of some optimism in the offshore drilling sector, particularly deepwater. Is this compressed business finally on the verge of a turn or is it still too early to be cautiously …

This news elevates the West Texas frac sand mining rush into a whole new stratosphere. It just went from something frac sand specialists were very focused on to something everyone will be focused on. The little sand dune mining story just went mainstream folks. At Infill Thinking, we’ve been covering …

On Wednesday evening, Infill Thinking spoke by phone with David Durrett, Managing Director of Permian sand mine startup Aequor. What we learned about his new West Texas sand mine project – Burro Minerals – surprised us. And it will surprise the market as well. There’s a lot more to this …

There’s been some talk in the market this week that sand customers might be skeptical of inking deals with startup sand producers. But what we heard from one E&P on Wednesday suggests just the opposite… Black Mountain has at least one long-term deal in the bag and probably more that …

Infill Thinking reader Ron Davis wrote in with a great excerpt on the offshore drilling outlook. As we start to think more about a potential inflection point in deepwater, we felt the thoughts he shared were worth printing in full… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see …

US Silica’s 2Q17 conference call ushered in earnings season for Big Sand Tuesday morning, and the call certainly brought the fireworks. Here are the key points US Silica made Tuesday that we found most interesting, accompanied by our take: There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the …

The combination of greater per rig retrofit investments and expanding inventory of upgrade candidates is the equivalent of newbuilding without building new. This kind of spending invites a whole crowd of previously shunned rigs into the exclusive super-spec club. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full …

Read what our local sources say about the very latest on Permian Basin frac sand development in this exclusive update. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are …

Earlier this week, first Halliburton and then Anadarko roiled the water by challenging the multi-year trend of more frac sand pumped per well. What was surprising about the remarks was that they pointed to not just plateauing in the trend but a reversal. Following their remarks on inflection, some other companies have …

Contrary to the click bait proliferating on other media platforms, US oil producers are not slashing 2017 tight oil investment programs as a result of recent crude oil price volatility. Anadarko’s US onshore investment revision, which became the poster child for so called shale budget cuts this week, is grossly misunderstood. Not only …

As the list of “haves” grows longer, now seems like a good time to ask this question: who hasn’t joined in the rush and why not? Our inverted Permian mine list may actually be more interesting at this juncture than widely known announced facilities. There’s a lot more to this story… …

The latest details on the latest new entrant to the Permian sand mining rush… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to Infill Thinking, or your …

The discussion around plateauing (wait… make that falling) frac sand/well is heating up. What’s new and what we think about it here. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If …

Halliburton and Schlumberger have given two distinctly different outlooks on US rig count direction for the next three to six months over the past two business days. Interestingly, their arguments have departed from their normal advocacy tendencies. See how and who we agree more with in this update. There’s a …

Halliburton’s frac sand statements overshadowed some really important Lower 48 market updates yesterday. Here are the key non-sand points that caught our attention: There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

The Permian Basin frac sand story is receiving attention from the local press out in West Texas. Some interesting incremental color emerged… feature image photo credit: Hi Crush’s Kermit site on Sunday July 24, 2017 front page of Odessa American There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see …

It’s a sign of the times. Frac sand controversy on Halliburton’s earnings conference call Monday overshadowed everything else, including some interesting points on pressure pumping dynamics, rig count brake tapping, international service pricing trends, and higher wages. We’ll address Big Red’s “non-sand” comments in a separate update later today. These …

An infill Thinking prediction was confirmed this morning as the Permian Basin sand rush continues to heat up… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to …

Schlumberger kicked off oilfield service earnings this morning. Everything you need to know about the tone they set is right here. Also, don’t miss the biggest takeaways of the day where Schlumberger’s CEO said… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this …

Today we are kicking off a two part series addressing the trucking needs for yet-to-be-produced Permian Basin frac sand. In this installment, we have maps of the mines vs. major trucking routes to well sites. We have also recorded some thoughts on the hidden logistics challenges that no one is …

The Wall Street Journal knows how to title a hit piece. After their article saying EnerVest is worthless, the company is scrambling to reassure its fearful supply chain. See who works for the operator and read EnerVest’s crisis management response in this update. There’s a lot more to this story… …

We take a look at drilling permit demand in the hottest oilfield in the world. What does it mean for what comes next? Also, our regular weekly tables and charts derived by applying a little infill thinking and elbow grease to Baker Hughes rig count data. There’s a lot more …

Staffing up the new Permian frac sand mines is a challenge we first wrote about back in May. Lately, we’ve heard and seen more sand producers highlighting the issue as a barrier to entry (example). In this update, we share the latest on who’s hiring, how they are doing it, …

On Monday, we learned that a UK frac equipment manufacturer is outperforming. Learn why and what it means for the US frac equipment supply chain in this update. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, …

Last week, we published a current snapshot of the Permian Basin sand picture which subscribers can download in excel. This is an accurate snapshot of “known” future in-basin mines; however, we encourage readers to remain vigilant and not get too comfortable with any analyst’s estimates of planned in-basin capacity just yet. …

There’s a new discussion topic posted in the Thinking Aloud forum. Most of our focus at InfillThinking.com this year has been on the Lower 48. That’s because most everything else is flat to down. With the oil price outlook under pressure and only the US tight oil plays growing, it’s time …

Despite the potentially wide ranging impact on industry activities next year, the lizard’s crawl back into the spotlight has been accompanied by very little fanfare. Outside of a few plugged-in Permian E&P leaders and some of the more cerebral in-basin sand producers, we don’t believe this topic has gotten the …

The Permian frac sand mine story has been moving at light speed. During conversations with several readers this week, we simply paused and marveled at the pace of newsflow in this trend. Even for those of us that keep up with the story very closely, reference points can quickly become …

Record setting STACK well results announced by Devon on Tuesday morning bode well for what the operator has planned next – a transition to full field, multi-zone manufacturing starting at a nearby location. We share our cliff notes on Devon’s pivotal Showboat project, which spuds imminently. There’s a lot more …

While the majors talk capex in terms of multi-year programs, the Independents that drive the Lower 48 drilling & completion markets are usually reticent to discuss specific year-ahead capex details until budget season (late-4Q / early 1Q). Last week an Independent talked specifics on their 2018 development plan – one …

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any hotter, the Permian frac sand rush heated up again this week. Two more mine sites were announced in the Permian on Thursday, including the largest to date. We now count 11 “firm” Permian mine sites, with rumors floating around of at least …

On the same day this week, both Halliburton and Forum Energy Technologies made acquisitions in the artificial lift space. Specifically, each firm announced a deal to take out a privately held electric submersible pump (ESP) target. The coincidental timing and shared ESP focus of the deals has inspired some exaggerated …

Infill Thinking membership tripled over the past three months. Before we review 2Q17 research highlights, here is some color on readership. As of July 2017, Infill Thinking readership is comprised of analysts, business people, and executives categorized as follows: If you haven’t subscribed (or renewed your free trial yet), please …

Deepwater attracts most of the attention paid to offshore drilling, but shallow water rig demand has improved recently stirring up some hope that perhaps the jackup segment may offer better relative recovery prospects offshore. We asked Infill Thinking subscriber Liz Tysall (a Senior Rystad Energy Analyst who has been following …

With oil prices falling, it is worth noting what historical oil price / rig count relationships suggest about future drilling activity. In this update, we examine the oilfield reaction times that can be expected when oil prices move. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full …

E&P transcripts we’ve seen from recent investor conferences have been pretty upbeat all things considered. Why? Oil prices are sub-$45 and under pressure. Well, shale has some tricks up its sleeve that allow it to keep going, and we break them down here. There’s a lot more to this story… …

Back on June 12 US Silica announced their entrance into the Permian Basin frac sand mining space. This week, new details have emerged… There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. …

A quick update on Hi-Crush’s new Permian mine here – specifically a picture shared with us taken from just outside their facility a few days ago. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must …

For this update we took a quick look at month-to-date horizontal drilling permitting activity in the Permian Basin. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see the full update…  To read this update and receive our research newsletters, you must be a member. If you are new to …

Each Friday in June, we are passing the keyboard to one of our readers to share perspective from the field. We have handpicked these experts in their fields to share insights on key oilfield trends and debates. In today’s piece, online marketplace RigUp offers cost and market transparency on the Lower …

Reacting to the crude price blood bath on their screens, dozens of Wall Street research shops are blasting bearish notes to institutional investor clients as we write. There is a common thread in every one of these notes that we’ve seen. Wall Street analysts blame relentless US tight oil producers …

Infill Thinking’s Follow The Leaders series distills key unconventional E&P strategies into real-time, digestible updates. The goal? Uncover future business opportunities and risks. Today we take a look at a new value creation strategy outlined by the leader in natural gas. The meaning of value creation in shale gas has changed. There’s a lot …

Yesterday morning, EQT consolidated the Marcellus Shale by acquiring Rice Energy for $6.7bn in a deal that creates the largest natural gas producer (>3Bcfpd) in the US.  The deal is expected to close in 4Q17. The combination and new strategic direction for the combined operator has material implications for the …

Over the past several weeks, we have spoken with many industry contacts close to the Permian Basin frac sand mining scene. Our channel checks have revealed insights on geology, plant progress, challenges, tone shift, and contracting activity. In a two part series starting last week and concluding today, we are …

Everything seems lined up for an incredible 2H17 for US completion service providers. Everything except for oil prices. In a week of rampant pessimism, our obligatory negative post introduces several new developments you won’t read about anywhere else including what one of the biggest pressure pumpers in the market is telling …